Yodel while you HODL

I’m a sceptic on bitcoin but I’m not going to get into an argument about why etc…what’s the point! As bitcoin goes up ergo bitcoin believers are correct. I’ve been wrong before and can’t always be on the winning side. Maybe bitcoin is THE money.

There are three types of big guys getting into Bitcoin:

1) True believers

2) True schemers

3) True cowards

True believers will hold it to the moon and back to the depths. In number this is probably a minority interest but in dollars (if you will permit that) they most likely dominate quite extensively and…


Time to pucker up and give Trump a kiss.

MMTree

Our collective sanity is being assailed by an unrelenting locust-swarm media and the groaning end of a socioeconomic era. They combine to bring to you live, a societal Groundhog Day, through urgent breaking news every day

Once we find the route out of our current Groundhog Day the rest of the 2020s will be a period of recovery from our self-inflicted 2008–20 demi-depression, with its joyful occasional playmate; boom. The Covid flash depression is the paroxysm that heralds the end of a disease rather than the beginning. …


Rinse repeat until we get the right answer

Medium reading time estimate says this will take you 2 minutes but I’m assuming you’re not that slow…

We have two paths ahead of us:

1) debt deflation depression

2) something else

We will choose 2 though clearly we don’t really know what it is. So far no country has been brave enough to articulate a truly durable alt strategy that negates 1. So it feels like data and proof point relentlessly to 1 and a lot of macro savants and big money people have asserted that based on ‘the irrefutable data’.

However, 1 cannot and will not be permitted…


Back to the future in the 2020s

2020 getting set to go out with a bang

The US is on the cusp of an economic boom. The Covid crisis is petering out yet policy will remain pedal to the metal with high powered fiscal and economic intervention more potent than the weak-assed monetary fiddling normalised after 2008, regardless of whether Trump or Biden wins. We’ll follow in the UK, and Europe will too but may drag its heals in that unique euro-dysfunction style and flirt with misguided austerity.

2008–2020 has been a sort of bastardised semi-depression in the West. After 2008 we prevented the debt deflation and capital destruction impulse that history foretold must happen through…


Jump starting the UK’s 4th emergency service

The AA’s in a potential bidding war/takeover. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/business/aa-attracts-rival-private-equity-bids-w06l3wnrg

Could get exciting. I’m long and wrong to date…so perhaps just ignore me….

I took a full position in AA at 50p (started to build in 80s) before the pricing on its debt started undermining it….I then topped up at 15p mid Covid. Its not been my finest investment to date.

AA was always a bit unusual for me as I wouldn’t normally take a full position in something with clear and present catastrophe risk….but I originally believed I could see a manageable debt…


Socialist revenge-nostalgia: Pitchforks without solutions

“Each billionaire evidences our great success and failure.”

Someone said the above on Twitter recently and its very profound. We are awful with quantities that move exponentially beyond our lived experience so to provide context and scale the same tweet juxtaposed 1 million seconds as 12 days and 1 billion as 31 years.

For most Brits a million is a lot of money. It’s even a decent amount for affluent South East professional sorts if we remove (fantasy!) wealth derived from their ridiculously bloated house prices. …


I live in affluent west London and ran my own hedge fund business that profited from seeing the 2008 crisis coming. I attended a private school. I’m the 1%. I am the epitome of privilege.

I grew up on council estates with a metal worker dad and cleaner mum who both endured hardship, including unemployment and tough working conditions, and died by 60. On the back of the labours of my parents I am the epitome of social mobility.

My persona blends white working class and middle class professional with attendant affluent foreign and ethnic friends. I am comfortable in…


There was a period in history when the West’s international identity and institutions were strongly forged. This intense high-energy crucible of collaboration was fuelled by three fires that ran into each other — the bad peace of the Treaty of Versailles, the Great Depression and subsequent world war.

An enemy sustains purpose

The emergence of USSR geopolitical power provided motivation for continued cooperation. US leadership was aided and assured by its global deputies — NATO, UN, IMF, the elitist and Atlanticist annual Bilberberg meeting, the European Steel and Coal Community (which would ultimately become the EU) and Japan.

History is told by the victor’s…


Like the cat in Schrödinger’s famous quantum thought experiment we can’t know whether we are dead or alive as we await the writing of definitive history.

Using markets as the measure, our recovery from 2008 is spectacular. However, looking at people and politics it appears the crisis has rumbled on perhaps even gathering momentum. Our once-assured sense of self, as a collective of Western liberal democracies, has been critically unnerved. Are we zombie nations?

Most agree that 2008 was caused by outrageous, massive and uncontrolled financial market shenanigans that we did not understand. Truth is we still don’t really get…


Tweet tweet tweet

We live in a time of perpetual ersatz crises. Discuss in 280 characters.

As gamers in the fourth industrial revolution we’re always on the cusp of crisis. You know, the sort of calamity and panic that unfolds when the media fear they might fail to wring a mawkish angle out of a tale.

The media is now hypermedia and it’s the tail wagging the governing dog. If I were to say the future of our rational liberal democracy relies on realising and remedying this you’d probably say I was being overly dramatic. I’d say watch the news if you want…

Paul Lavin

CVO (Chief Visionary officer) behind mojostrat™ a new global incoherence recognition and interpretation advisory

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